basketball, decoded.

These are the numbers behind the model — our own ratings and how we compare them to the betting market. They work the same in every sport.

• ELO

  power rating
  A single number for how good a team is right now, borrowed from chess (where it ranks players). Every team starts at 1500 — exactly average. Win and your number climbs; lose and it drops. Crucially, beating a great team moves it more than beating a bad one, so the rating quietly accounts for who you’ve played. Above 1500 = better than average. The gap between two teams’ Elo is all you need to estimate who’d win.

  1500 = average · 1550+ = strong contender · 1450 = rebuilding
• Win Prob

  win probability
  Our model’s estimate of a team’s chance to win a specific game — calculated from the Elo gap between the two teams, plus a bump for playing at home.
• Implied %

  market implied probability
  The win chance baked into a betting line. A team at −150 is "implied" to win about 60% of the time. It’s the market’s opinion, translated into a percentage so we can compare it to ours.

  −150 ≈ 60% · −110 ≈ 52% · +130 ≈ 43%
• De-vig

  removing the house cut
  Betting lines include the house’s built-in profit margin (the "vig"), which makes both sides add up to more than 100%. We strip it out so the market number is a fair, honest probability — apples to apples with our model.
• Edge

  model vs. market gap
  The difference between our model’s win probability and the market’s. A big edge means the math and the money disagree — the game worth a second look. It’s not a betting tip; it’s where two smart estimates part ways.

  we flag any gap of 5 percentage points or more

• AST

  assists
  Passes that lead directly to a made basket. The playmaking stat.

  7+ is a primary creator
• REB

  rebounds
  Missed shots grabbed, on offense or defense. Possessions won.

  10+ is a double-double threat
• STL / BLK

  steals & blocks
  Takeaways and rejected shots — the disruptive end of defense.

  elite defenders fill both columns
• USG%

  usage rate
  The share of his team’s plays a player "uses" (shoots, gets fouled, or turns it over) while on the floor. Measures how much the offense runs through him.

  20% is average · 30%+ = focal point
• TOV

  turnovers
  Possessions given away. The cost side of high usage — lower is better.

  watch it against assists

• VORP / WS

  value & win shares
  Basketball’s single-number value stats — Value Over Replacement Player and Win Shares — try to credit one player with his slice of the team’s wins.

  we cite these; we don’t compute them
• note

  why we cite, not compute
  These come from Basketball-Reference, and the richest tracking data (player movement, shot quality) is privately held by the league’s vendors. Elo and our win probabilities we build ourselves — the rest we attribute. See the methodology.