30 teams, one model, re-rated every night. Honest ELO win probabilities built game-by-game from real results — then held up against the market, because the number worth having is the one the book isn’t showing you.
Our ELO model's home-team win probability vs the market. A gap of 5+ points flags an edge. No advice — just where the math and the market part ways.
| matchup | model (home) | market (home) | edge | model lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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All 30 NBA teams ranked by ELO — built from every game of the 2025-26 season. Click any team to see their page.
| # | team | elo | rating | gp |
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One email every morning: the day's biggest market moves, the data behind them, and where the model splits from the line — the one read worth reading, across every sport we cover.