Our own Elo power ratings — built from real game results, then measured against the live betting market. Where they disagree is the signal. what do these numbers mean?
Each game shows our model's home-team win probability next to the market's de-vigged implied probability. A gap of 5 points or more flags an edge — the side our model rates higher than the betting market does. Not advice; just where the math and the market part ways.
| matchup | model (home) | market (home) | edge | model lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading today's board… | ||||
Our model's projected total runs, next to the market's over/under line. This is analysis, not a wager. Our totals model predicts about as well as the market but doesn't beat it — so we show where our math sits relative to the line as context, never as a pick. The honest write-up is in the ledger.
| matchup | our projection | market line | lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| loading totals… | |||
| # | team | elo | rating | gp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading ratings… | ||||