No games until September — but the market’s already moving. Win totals, MVP futures, and the minicamp reports nudging lines, with the model’s number sitting next to Vegas’s on every one.
538-style ELO ratings built game-by-game from real results, no hindsight. The NFL model spins up in-season — tracking every team from week 1 with walk-forward ratings and honest win probabilities.
Auto-generated from real model data — where the numbers split from the market and why. No fake bylines, no invented takes. See our full model history →
One email every morning: the day's biggest market moves, the data behind them, and where the model splits from the line — the one read worth reading, across every sport we cover.