nfl glossary // linehype

start_here

elo & the model.

These are the numbers behind the model — our own ratings and how we compare them to the betting market. They work the same in every sport.

ELO
power rating

A single number for how good a team is right now, borrowed from chess (where it ranks players). Every team starts at 1500 — exactly average. Win and your number climbs; lose and it drops. Crucially, beating a great team moves it more than beating a bad one, so the rating quietly accounts for who you’ve played. Above 1500 = better than average. The gap between two teams’ Elo is all you need to estimate who’d win.

1500 = average · 1550+ = strong contender · 1450 = rebuilding
Win Prob
win probability

Our model’s estimate of a team’s chance to win a specific game — calculated from the Elo gap between the two teams, plus a bump for playing at home.
Implied %
market implied probability

The win chance baked into a betting line. A team at −150 is "implied" to win about 60% of the time. It’s the market’s opinion, translated into a percentage so we can compare it to ours.

−150 ≈ 60% · −110 ≈ 52% · +130 ≈ 43%
De-vig
removing the house cut

Betting lines include the house’s built-in profit margin (the "vig"), which makes both sides add up to more than 100%. We strip it out so the market number is a fair, honest probability — apples to apples with our model.
Edge
model vs. market gap

The difference between our model’s win probability and the market’s. A big edge means the math and the money disagree — the game worth a second look. It’s not a betting tip; it’s where two smart estimates part ways.

we flag any gap of 5 percentage points or more

through_the_air

passing.

Comp %
completion percentage

The share of a quarterback’s passes that are caught. The simplest accuracy read.

63% average · 68%+ excellent
Y/A
yards per attempt

Average yards gained on each pass thrown — rewards going downfield, not just dinking and dunking. A cleaner efficiency stat than raw yards.

7.0 average · 8.0+ great
Rating
passer rating

The classic 0–158.3 QB formula from completions, yards, touchdowns, and picks. Old but everywhere.

90 average · 100+ very good · 158.3 = perfect
QBR
total quarterback rating

ESPN’s modern 0–100 rating that weighs everything a QB does — including runs and situation — not just box-score passing.

50 average · 65+ good · 75+ elite
TD / INT
touchdowns to interceptions

Scores thrown versus passes handed to the other team. The ratio is a quick gut-check on a QB’s season.

2-to-1 is solid · 4-to-1+ is elite ball security

ground_&_catch

rushing & receiving.

YPC
yards per carry

Average yards a running back gains each rush. Efficiency, not just volume.

4.0 average · 4.5+ very good
YAC
yards after catch

Yards a receiver gains after the ball hits his hands — the playmaking part, separate from the throw.

higher = more do-it-yourself yards
Targets
times thrown to

How often a receiver was the intended man. Measures opportunity and trust, even on incompletions.

a workhorse sees 8–10+ per game
Scrim YDS
yards from scrimmage

Rushing + receiving yards combined — a running back’s total offensive output in one number.

100/game is a featured back

the_other_side

defense.

Sacks
quarterback takedowns

Tackling the QB behind the line before he can throw. The headline pass-rush stat.

10+ in a season is a star edge rusher
TFL
tackles for loss

Stopping a ball-carrier behind the line of scrimmage — disruption, run or pass.

leaders post 15–20 a year
INT / PD
interceptions & passes defended

Picks plus passes a defender broke up. Measures coverage even when he doesn’t catch it.

a shutdown corner racks up PDs
Tackles
combined tackles

Solo plus assisted stops. Volume stat — linebackers and safeties lead it.

100+ is a tackling-machine season

next_gen

the new stats.

These come from the NFL’s player-tracking chips. They describe how a play happened — and some are publicly available, though tracking depth in football is thinner than baseball’s.

EPA
expected points added

How much a single play changed a team’s expected points. The modern catch-all for efficiency — positive is good, and EPA per play is how analysts compare QBs.

positive per-play EPA = above average
CPOE
completion % over expected

How much better (or worse) a QB completes passes than expected, given how hard each throw was. Strips out easy checkdowns.

positive = more accurate than the average arm
Time to Throw
snap-to-release seconds

How long a QB holds the ball before throwing. Low can mean a quick release or a shaky line; high can mean playmaking or pressure problems.

~2.7 seconds is typical
Separation
cushion at the catch

Yards of space a receiver creates from the nearest defender when the ball arrives. The route-running stat.

3+ yards is getting open with ease

the_one_number

all-in-one value.

AV / Grades
total-value estimates

Football’s attempts at a single value number — Pro-Football-Reference’s Approximate Value, or PFF’s player grades. Useful shorthand for "how good was this guy, overall."

we cite these; we don’t compute them
note
why we cite, not compute

Unlike Elo and the win probabilities — which we build ourselves from public results — these all-in-one grades are proprietary to outside services. When we use one, we’ll say whose it is. See the methodology.