Major League Soccer through a draw-aware ELO — wins, losses, and draws all move the number. Built match-by-match from real results, then priced against the market to show where our read and the book’s line split.
Soccer has three outcomes, so the model's number is an expected result share for the home side — win probability plus half its draw probability — measured against the market's three-way line with the book's cut removed. A gap of 5+ points flags an edge.
| matchup | model (home) | market (home) | edge | model lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Every MLS club ranked by ELO — built from every match of the 2026 season, draws included.
| # | club | elo | rating | gp |
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One email every morning: the day's biggest market moves, the data behind them, and where the model splits from the line — the one read worth reading, across every sport we cover.