England's top flight through a draw-aware ELO — wins, losses, and draws all move the number. Built match-by-match from every result this season, then held against the market to surface the price the book buries.
Soccer has three outcomes, so the model's number is an expected result share for the home side — win probability plus half its draw probability — measured against the market's three-way line with the book's cut removed. A gap of 5+ points flags an edge.
| matchup | model (home) | market (home) | edge | model lean |
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All 20 clubs ranked by ELO — built from every match of the 2025-26 season, draws included. Not the league table: a strength rating.
| # | club | elo | rating | gp |
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