England's top flight through a draw-aware ELO. Ratings built match-by-match from every result of the 2025-26 season — wins, losses, and draws all move the number. Walk-forward, no hindsight.
Soccer has three outcomes, so the model's number is an expected result share for the home side — win probability plus half its draw probability — measured against the market's de-vigged three-way line. A gap of 5+ points flags an edge.
| matchup | model (home) | market (home) | edge | model lean |
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All 20 clubs ranked by ELO — built from every match of the 2025-26 season, draws included. Not the league table: a strength rating.
| # | club | elo | rating | gp |
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